Futures and Outright Bets Explained

A futures bet, called an outright or ante-post bet in the UK and Ireland, is a wager on something that will be decided weeks or months from now. Examples are the winner of a league, a golf major, a tournament or an award. This guide explains how these bets are priced, what they cost and how the rules differ in the UK, USA, Ireland, Canada and Australia.

It is educational only. It does not suggest any team, player or horse, and nothing here makes a long-term bet any more likely to win.

What a futures bet is

In a normal match bet, the result is known within hours. In a futures market there is a long list of possible winners, each with its own price, and the bet stays open until the event ends. Typical examples are:

• League or title winners: the champion of a season.
• Tournament winners: golf, tennis and horse racing, such as the Grand National or a major golf championship.
• Season totals and awards: a team’s win total, or the top scorer.
• To qualify or to be relegated: yes or no outcomes over a long period.

Prices are usually fractional, decimal or American (for example +800).

Why the margin is usually bigger

A bookmaker’s margin is the amount by which implied probabilities add to more than 100%. The more outcomes in a market, the more places it can hide.

Here is a simplified five-runner league market, for illustration with invented prices, in decimal odds: 2.50, 3.50, 5.00, 8.00 and 15.00. The implied probabilities are:

• 1 / 2.50 = 40.0%
• 1 / 3.50 = 28.6%
• 1 / 5.00 = 20.0%
• 1 / 8.00 = 12.5%
• 1 / 15.00 = 6.7%

They total about 107.7%, so the margin is roughly 7.7%. Real outright markets usually have many more runners, so total margins are often larger than in a single-match market. The exact number depends on the operator and market. Compare that with the 4% to 5% margin typical of a two-way match price. For background see how odds compilers work.

Money tied up

A futures stake is committed until the event ends. If you place 20 pounds on an outright nine months before the final, that money cannot be used for anything else, and you may not see it again for the whole period. A long wait also means the situation changes a lot: injuries, transfers, managers, weather and form can all alter the picture.

Many long-term bets at once can add up to more than you meant to risk, so count each stake in your budget on the day you place it.

What happens if a runner drops out

Rules matter more here than in a one-day bet. In many ante-post markets, if a horse, player or team does not take part, the stake is lost unless the operator has advertised special terms such as money back for non-runners. Check the rules before placing the bet. In sports with each-way terms, the each-way bets article explains how place terms work, and they are often available for outright golf and racing markets.

What hedging means

Hedging means placing a second bet on a different outcome of the same event to change your overall position, usually after the first bet has moved closer to winning. It is a concept, not a recommendation, and this guide does not give staking instructions.

Three points explain why it is not a free fix:

• The second bet has its own margin. The price on the opposing outcome already includes the operator’s built-in percentage, so a position locked in this way is worth less than the same position at a margin-free price.
• It trades upside for certainty. Covering one result reduces the amount you could win if your original pick comes in, as well as the amount you could lose.
• It only works when the market allows it. A hedge needs a suitable opposing market, a price you accept and enough stake limit. Prices can move, limits can apply and a bet can be restricted or voided under the operator’s rules.

A hedge also adds a second stake to your spending. Count both bets in your budget, because together they can cost more than the one you first placed. For a related but different idea, see matched betting.

Rules by country

• United Kingdom: ante-post betting is common in racing, football and golf. Operators serving Great Britain must be licensed by the Gambling Commission, and the minimum age is 18.
• United States: futures are offered in states with legal sports betting, regulated state by state, with ages mostly 21. Winnings are federally taxable; see gambling winnings tax.
• Ireland: betting licences are being issued by the Gambling Regulatory Authority of Ireland under the Gambling Regulation Act 2024. Self-exclusion is operator by operator.
• Canada: provinces regulate betting, with a minimum age of 19 in most provinces and 18 in Alberta, Manitoba and Quebec.
• Australia: licensed wagering operators offer futures on sport and racing. Online casino games and pokies are prohibited for people in Australia. BetStop is the national self-exclusion register.

Staying in control

Long-term bets feel small, because the result is far away. Record each one in the spend tracker when you place it. If betting is affecting your mood or finances, self-exclusion is available.

The bottom line

Futures and outrights tie up your money for a long time, carry larger margins than match bets and depend on rules about withdrawals. Hedging can change the shape of a position, but the second bet carries its own margin and reduces the upside. No long-term market is safe or predictable, so only stake what you can afford to lose.

Sources

• Fair and transparent terms and practices (gamblingcommission.gov.uk)
• Gambling Regulation Act 2024 and licensing (grai.ie)
• BetStop national self-exclusion register (betstop.gov.au)
• Sport and event betting standards (agco.ca)

18+ only (21 in most US states, 19 in most Canadian provinces for casino and betting). Gambling can be addictive. Free, confidential help is available: Great Britain: England and Scotland 0808 8020 133, Wales 0808 2819 265 (free, 24 hours), and GAMSTOP (gamstop.co.uk); US: National Problem Gambling Helpline 1-800-MY-RESET (the older 1-800-522-4700 also works); Australia: Gambling Help Online 1800 858 858 and BetStop (betstop.gov.au); Ontario, Canada: ConnexOntario 1-866-531-2600; Ireland: speak to your GP or the HSE. Never gamble money you need for living costs.